Here is why Franck Biya will never be president
Here is why Franck Biya will never be president
Franck Biya is expected to replace his father Paul Biya in the high office of the Cameroonian State. Benjamin Zebaze returns with details which clearly show that the eldest son of President Paul Biya will not be able to be President of Cameroon. For now, no one can confirm anything. The mysterious future belongs to Paul Biya.
Here is the full analysis of Benjamin Zebaze.
LET’S READ MY TEXT TOGETHER HERE AFTER
WHY FRANCK BIYA WILL NEVER BE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THIS COUNTRY
This post will attract many opponents to me; must I dwell on such considerations? Although I am neither a diviner nor a prophet, here is my “intimate conviction”.
Franck Biya can bring together all the Generals of the world, I do not see what assets he has to lead this country. Although it is a truism to say that Cameroon is neither Chad nor Togo or even less Gabon, the fact is that none of these countries has neither our ethnic diversity nor our linguistic diversity, nor our cultural diversity.
In all the countries mentioned, apart from the political capital, no other city has the stature of Douala, Yaoundé, Limbe, Buea, Bamenda, Bafoussam, N’Gaoundéré, Garoua, Maroua… If as soon as we control Ndjamena, Lomé, Libreville… we control an entire country, is this possible in Cameroon in the event of a serious crisis?
FROM THE EQUILATERAL TRIANGLE OF PROFESSOR ROGER GABRIEL NLEP, TO MY EQUILATERAL SQUARE
You cannot understand anything about what awaits us on the political level, if you refuse to understand the notion of “equilateral triangle” of which the late Professor Aggregated of French Universities Roger Gabriel Nlep spoke in 1990.
In each country, there are men far ahead of their time and Gabriel Nlep is one of them. He was insulted when he understood before anyone else where this country was heading.
According to him, “Cameroonians should not be locked in an equilateral triangle within which Beti, Bamileke and northerners wanted to lock up other Cameroonians”.
We are in it. Except that taking into account the evolution of the situation, I would opt for an “equiangular square” by adding the English speakers.
Tribe, culture, religion, language… at the heart of political choices
I don’t understand why Cameroonians run away from the obvious: whether this is a good or a bad thing, we can clearly see that it is belonging to a any group which conditions, more than a man or a program, the political choice of very many Cameroonians.
In this little game, the Ekangs/beti, the Grands-Nordistes, the Anglophones and the Bamileké are the groups with the most assets because of the large number and the means that can serve an ambition.
When we follow the evolution of this country, we see that the Secretary General of the Presidency of the Republic Ferdinand Ngoh Ngoh, is only the visible part which hides a clan above which sits the first lady; we also know that alongside a weakened man, it is he who really runs this country, under the benevolent tutelage of the chieftain of this clan.
This group advances its pawns; places his men and can legitimately think, as in Zimbabwe under Mugabé, that the “old man” horizontally, he will only have to bend down to pick up the bet: in my opinion, they are wrong: but it is not the topic.
Do you believe that these people will allow themselves to be overtaken by a “white beak” new to politics, who does not master the administrative or military apparatus (unlike Deby, Bongo and Eyadema juniors)? Are they going to let themselves go to the point that we come to reap with impunity what they have patiently sown? That with the accumulated means, they will accept, without fighting, that what they consider to be their place goes to a “goldem boy” just because he has no other advantage than being the son of… ?
After the departure of Paul Biya, it will first be necessary to come out alive, both literally and figuratively, from a fierce battle inside the “granite breeding ground” of the Head of State, which we will realize wasn’t as “hard” as that.
The Great North: the favorite of the “polls”.
When I read all the contempt towards the various actions carried out by Guibaï Gatama, I am sad to see how blind our people are.
Unlike young people like him who have reached the height of their wildest dreams by entering parliament and improvising themselves as “grandmother’s insulters”, this boy is one of the most dangerous (in the positive sense of the word) of his generation, even of this country.
Because he is one of the few to have understood where Professor Nlep’s famous equilateral triangle was going to lead us: to be ready, everyone will have to mobilize their camp as much as possible. When he publishes documents, images, the Cameroonians of the Great South choke: but it is not for them that he writes. He sends to the Great Northerners and to those in power clear and unambiguous messages:
– It indicates that they are part of the largest group in number in this country;
– From the most homogeneous group;
– That despite individual nominations, they are the most affected in terms of infrastructure;
– That they have the men, the means, the will and the determination necessary to regain power;
– That they are not the “sheep” that we believe…
And it works, helped by; and acts of incredible imbecility such as sending a “troublemaker” like Messanga Nyamding to their geographical area; it ended up convincing the most skeptical among them that they are, for those in power, “nothing but election cattle”.
In this regard, the Far North has the best strategy in the face of what awaits us. This is also why an expert in tribalism understood the “danger” well: he understood that the Bamileke vote that he fights with the last energy that remains to him is too disparate to be really dangerous. If Mathias Owona Nguini decided to attack the northerners through Guibai Gatama, it is because the wind of hatred that inhabits him gave way to a few seconds of lucidity.
Because with the Great North, they will have to face strong adversity because opposite, they will come up against tough, determined, disciplined people, with means and above all able to benefit from a rear base both in Chad and in northern Nigeria, or even in southern Niger where they have family.
Cameroonians should have been wary when Ahmadou Ali, then one of the most powerful men in the Republic, said: “The three northern regions which are ethnically and culturally different from the rest of Cameroon will continue to support Biya for as long as he wishes to remain president, but Cameroon’s next president will not come from Biya’s Beti/Bulu ethnicity. The Betis are too few in number to oppose the northerners, let alone the rest of Cameroon. Bamilekes made overtures to northern elites to forge an alliance between their respective regions, but the northerners were so suspicious of Bamileke intentions that they would never enter into an alliance to support Bamileke political power.
Despite the public outcry, what great northerner has joined his voice to the cries of the very many naive people in this country? They continue calmly and imperturbably to weave their web, far from the hustle and bustle of social networks.
What will happen after the departure of Paul Biya?
By reading just the question, redepicists can commit suicide as this hypothesis is “unthinkable” for them.
I see two hypotheses:
Hypothesis 1 The constitution is respected
Who imagines that the constitution can, in the current context, be respected in the event of Paul Biya’s departure? Unless he has mud as a brain, how will Niat Njifenji, who no longer knows the difference between day and night, be able to lead this crab basket towards mild waters?
Nevertheless, since the hypothesis exists, it must be considered:
– The Rdpc will have to meet to choose a candidate. If by some miracle this party chooses a candidate from the Far North who is not sufficiently wet by the shenanigans of the system, such as Minister Alamine Ousame Mey, the election is over if the latter reassures the Far North.
Not because it benefits from a good balance sheet or that it has a good program, but simply because it will have, it should be remembered, a homogeneous mass to support it.
All candidates who do not want to hear about Kamto, or any beti, will take refuge behind the protective wing of this candidate from the Far North.
And the role of France in all this?
One can be, like me, against French policy in Africa without denying the reality which is that without the approval of France, it is difficult to become Head of State in this country.
However, the latter hate the Bamileke to the highest point, whom they believe cannot be trusted. They appreciate the calm and the respect of the given word which generally dominate the behavior of the northerners.
Many clues show that they are preparing this hypothesis. For fear of betraying my many friends, I will not be very precise; I invite Cameroonians who know how to snoop to observe which national group is most present with certain powerful French multinationals: I say that and I said nothing.
– The Rdpc wants to impose a beti candidate like Franck Biya. So, it will be a remake of 1958 when the Great North, united around Ahmadou Ahidjo Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the Interior, released Prime Minister André Mbida. The Far North will present a candidate and the Rdpc will lose the benefit of the votes of many more or less fictitious voters, whom it has helped to register on the electoral lists in the Far North.
In this hypothesis, a candidate of the Maurice Kamto type, has every chance because in my equiangular square, it will shoot in all directions.
Hypothesis 2 The clan in power wants to impose a president like Franck Biya by force.
It’s very interesting what can happen. Because the country will enter a long period of uncertainty. Cameroon being, as I indicated, neither Chad, nor Gabon, nor Togo by its configuration, we can hold Yaoundé without holding the rest of the country.
Besides, without the Littoral and the English-speaking area, where Yaoundé will find all the money that allows the oligarchs to continue to maintain this crazy lifestyle, despite the multiple crises?
The Great North can very well do without the rest of Cameroon and in the event of an armed conflict, the Great South does not have the means to hold out over time. You should know that the entire area on the border of the Far North is home to a Nigerian state of which Maïduguri is the capital, mainly populated by…Cameroonians who became Nigerians after this fake referendum during which French and English shared Cameroon.
The Far North, officially the most populated Region of this country, has a population of diverse origin with Nigerians, Chadians, Nigeriens, Sudanese…who, because of wars and different migrations, have come together in The area.
Caught between the English-speaking zone which, if things remain as they are, will kiss each other from the departure of Paul Biya, the Far North which will rebel in the hypothesis Franck Biya: on whom will reign the son to daddy with the West and the Littoral on the verge of implosion?
Such a complex situation is not favorable to Franck Biya.
Of course I could be wrong, but I don’t see how things could turn out otherwise.
Benjamin Zebaze
